The Australian property market has always been a hot topic for property investors. With its dynamic cities offering diverse opportunities, deciding where to invest is often overwhelming.
Perth, and Brisbane stand out as prime contenders for the property investor money in recent years, while Melbourne is one of the worst performing, just ahead of Darwin. Each city has its unique advantages, making it crucial to analyze factors like median price trends, stock on the market, days on market, and recent growth to guide your investment decision.
Recently, there have been market discussions that Melbourne is waking up. So we did an analysis of recent data is showing some shocking information. The data is showing things are about to change. Some locations could get ugly, and some locations are showing early signs of a impending boom. Is Melbourne about to wake up from it extended Pandemic Lockdown slumber or is it going to crash further?
Just be forewarned, the next 10-15 minutes of this article is going to be very dry. We will be discussing how we derive at our conclusion and where we see the 3 markets heading. Skip ahead to the end of the article, if you are not a details person. Or get in touch with one of our investment advisors for your custom list of Australian Suburbs that is about to boom.
So, let’s dive into the numbers and let our Melbourne-based buyers advocates explore where we top picks are and where you should avoid. Is Melbourne going to crash further? Or will Perth continue to retain its Star Performer title?
What Must You Know Before Start Your Property Investment Journey?
When it comes to property investing, you only need to know two things. Your budget, and your goals. Working out the the budget is simple. Our mortgage partners will help you understand your budget. But very quickly, it is how much you can afford to invest, plus how much a lender will lend you. Goals might be a bit tricky to identify as no two investors are the same, nor do they have the same risk appetite. Other than following their friend, most investors do not even know what they want out of investing in properties. What is the purpose of investing investing in properties?
Once we have these defined, let's start running our requirements and goals through our data analytics. The systematic, fact-based property investment methodology which Concierge Buyers Advocates used, involves the study and analysis of over 100 data metrics and 30 years of real estate data, combined with inputs from on-the-ground property inspections, location visits, etc.
At Concierge Buyers Advocates, we believe data can only show us historical indicators, while on-the-ground feedback tells us what is actually happening, first hand. Any investment advisors and buyers agents who says they do not have to be on-site is just BS. There is only so much historical data can show. It CANNOT show you what is happening at this very moment, and there are many nuances of the location which can never be recorded in data.
What data do property investors and investment advisors study?
In order to pick the best property for investment, our property investment advisors study the appropriate data sets from our database of over 100+ data matrices. We identity trends and select some of the best suburbs to invest in for your budget, goals and risk appetite.
Some of the key data matrices we use includes:
1. Median Price and Price Growth Trend
Why It Matters:
Median price represents the midpoint of property prices in a market, giving an unbiased view of the market's overall price level.
It smoothen out the effects of extremely high or low-priced properties that can skew averages.
Trends in median price reveal whether property values are increasing (growth phase), stagnating (plateau), or declining (correction phase).
What It Indicates:
Rising Median Price: Signals demand is outpacing supply, potentially leading to a seller’s market.
Falling Median Price: Suggests reduced buyer demand or oversupply, which may create a buyer’s market.
2. Days on Market (DoM)
Why It Matters:
DoM measures how long properties stay on the market before being sold. It reflects the speed of transactions, which is tied to demand and market activity.
Shorter DoM: Indicates a strong demand, competitive market, and buyer urgency.
Longer DoM: Suggests lower demand, excess supply, or overpricing.
What It Indicates:
Falling DoM: Can signal improving market conditions or high demand.
Rising DoM: May indicate a cooling market or properties that are overpriced relative to buyer expectations.
3. Stock on Market (SoM)
Why It Matters:
SoM reflects the percentage of properties available for sale in relation to the total number of properties in the market. It highlights the balance between supply and demand.
A higher SoM percentage suggests higher inventory levels (buyer’s market).
A lower SoM percentage indicates tighter inventory (seller’s market).
What It Indicates:
Low SoM: Creates competition among buyers, driving prices upward.
High SoM: Reduces buyer competition, which can lead to price drops.
4. Price Growth Trends
Why It Matters:
Price growth trends (monthly, quarterly, yearly) track how property values are changing over time. This metric is crucial for understanding market momentum.
Positive growth indicates a rising market (appreciation), while negative growth signals a declining market (depreciation).
Investors and buyers monitor this to identify entry or exit points.
What It Indicates:
Sustained Growth: Reflects a strong, healthy market with robust demand.
Negative or Stagnant Growth: May signal oversupply, economic slowdown, or declining demand.
How Do You Use Data to Identify Investment Hotspots?
When analyzed together, these metrics plus many others provide a comprehensive picture of the real estate market; including
how well the markets have been performing;
where the strengths and weaknesses in each market are;
the markets that are showing signs of weaknesses;
the markets that are showing signs of booming;
where the upcoming investment hotspots are.
By considering these indicators, plus validations from on-the-ground location visits, our analysts can make accurate predictions about where the market is heading and advise our buyers, investors and sellers accordingly.
Melbourne vs Perth vs Brisbane. Here's what the data are telling us for 2025
With the above brief overview of our systematic investment methodology, let's look at what the data is telling us for 2025.
To achieve a high-level view of the property investment market direction, let's take a closer look at the 4 metrics, median price, stock on market, days on market, and price growth trend.
Median Price
Let's start with the median price. We all know the recent 5 years have been very eventful for property investors. We had the pandemic lockdowns at the turn of this decade, interest rates crashing to historic low to help prop up the economy, and the borders being shut, to help limit the spread of the virus. Property prices in some cities grew, while it remained stagnant in others.
When the pandemic restrictions were rolled back, we had a huge increase in migration numbers, followed by huge inflations and housing mortgage interest rates jumping from a low 2% to the current 7%, curbing borrowing power and slowing housing price growth. The series of events in recent 5 years since pandemic, caused major changes in investor behaviour. To study median price, we will break the median price analysis into 2 timelines: Period A from 10-5 years ago, and Period B, from 5 years ago to today.
| Median Price 2025 | Median Price 2020 | Median Price 2015 | Growth 2015-2025 | Growth 2015-2019 | Growth 2020-2025 |
Brisbane | $1,124,261 | $615,287 | $526,383 | 113.6% | 16.9% | 82.7% |
Melbourne | $1,205,394 | $1,026,182 | $769,381 | 56.7% | 33.4% | 17.5% |
Perth | $1,087,656 | $605,617 | $660,515 | 64.7% | -8.3% | 79.6% |
As you would already noticed from the above, the best performer over the 10 years is Brisbane with over 113% growth, followed by Perth and Melbourne. But if we breakdown this growth into pre and post pandemic, ie, 2015-2019 (pre-pandemic) and 2020-2025 (post-pandemic), Melbourne was the top performer with 33.4% over 5 years pre-pandemic, followed by Brisbane at about 17% over the same period. Perth is however, the shocker, with prices falling 8% in the same 5 years.
As you can see, most of Brisbane's and Perth's fantastic results over the 10 years were achieved post pandemic, growing about 80%. Can Brisbane and Perth sustain this growth? Where are these 2 markets heading in 2025 and beyond? What is going to happen in the market? When is the market shifting, and if it does, how good or bad will it be?
To attempt to answer these 2 questions, we will now look at the next 3 matrices:
Days on Market
Stock on Market
Recent Price Growth
Days on Market
While the number of days needed to sell a house is currently very similar across the 3 cities (33-35 days), the long term and short term Days on Market trends are where the juicy information is. In this data set, negative values in the Long Term and Short Term trend columns, shows downward trend, and the bigger the negative number is, the steeper the downward slope is. In the context of the days on market, ie, a negative number means it is getting quicker to sell a property, and the larger the negative number, the faster it is getting. A positive number, on the other hand, shows it is getting longer to sell.
| Average DoM | Average Short Term DoM | Average of Long Term DoM |
Greater Brisbane | 34.81 | 0.404 | -1.242 |
Greater Melbourne | 35.22 | -1.545 | 1.995 |
Greater Perth | 33.49 | -1.690 | -6.960 |
Days on Market Trend - Perth
While properties in Perth is still showing strong demand, the short term trend dropping significantly, from a long term trend of -6.96 to -1.69, shows fast weakening demand. While there is still demand, it is taking a lot longer to sell the properties, as buyers are less eager to buy. Buyers are probably starting to realise they are paying 80% more for the house compared to 5 years ago.
Days on Market Trend - Brisbane
It is the same story with Brisbane. The trend has reversed from -1.242 to +0.404, meaning demand has slowed and it is taking longer to sell a Brisbane property in Brisbane. It suggests that buyers are starting to stay away from the Brisbane market and we are starting to see more supply than demand.
Days on Market Trend - Melbourne
Melbourne on the other hand, is seeing a rather strong trend reversal from 1.995 to -1.545. Meaning it is getting faster to sell a house in Melbourne, suggesting that buyers are starting to buy up houses in Melbourne, while the copy-cat investors are still chasing the Brisbane and Perth markets, buying up overpriced houses dumped by savvy investors exiting those markets.
Stock on Market
Now that we had seen the trend, let's look at the stock on market situation. The Stock on Market indicator is a percentage of houses being sold in the respective market.
Average of SoM % | Average of SS SoM% | Average of LS SoM% | |
Brisbane | 0.304% | -0.012% | -0.048% |
Melbourne | 0.276% | -0.015% | -0.045% |
Perth | 0.323% | -0.031% | -0.065% |
Looking at the data above, it is telling us that of the 3 markets, Melbourne has the lowest proportion of houses being sold currently (Jan 2025) 0.28% vs 0.3% and 0.32%. Again the long and short term trend lines are telling us where the trend is heading. While buyers are active in the 3 markets, the availability of properties in the Melbourne market is dwindling fast.
What the above 3 metrics are showing is mind boggling. It reveals the answers to the 3 important questions on all property investors' mind. The dataset is showing a grim picture for some markets, with investors especially those copy-cat investors who are blinding chasing the FOMO, possibly losing their capital. One market showing signs of an impending boom though, with low stock on market, and the days on market getting shorter.
Key Insights: Markets and Sub-Markets Matter
While it's crucial to understand broader market trends, Australian property markets are incredibly fragmented. Unlike many countries, where the entire property market moves in sync, Australia is huge, and the Australia's property market is really made up of hundreds (if not thousands) of sub markets. There could be pockets within a crashing market that is doing well (eg, some key blue-chip suburbs in Melbourne), and there could be lemons in a booming suburbs. There are often markets with market.
Sub-Markets Within Cities: Not all suburbs in a city grow at the same rate. Some are poised for a boom, while others may stagnate or decline.
Property Types: Apartments, houses, and townhouses often move at different speeds and direction, even within the same suburb.
Why Investors Need Micro-Level Understanding
This diversity means that generalizations about an entire market may cause property investors and buyers to miss opportunities or costly mistakes at the micro level.
The right property in the right location will grow wealth, while the wrong one can become a financial burden.
Personalised strategy is crucial—buyers need to align their budget, needs, and goals with the best-performing sub-markets and property types.
The Investor's Dilemma: Picking the Right Property in the Right Location
For new or inexperienced investors, navigating these complexities is often overwhelming. The stakes are high:
Right Choices: Can grow your wealth faster and set you up for long-term success.
Wrong Choices: Could leave you stuck with a property that underperforms—or worse, leaves you financially exposed.
We help investors invest in properties, and it is our duty to tell investors that choosing the wrong property in the wrong location are known to bankrupt investors.
Now let's look at the answers to our key questions:
Melbourne vs Brisbane vs Perth: Which Property Market is Set to Lose Steam?
According to recent data, Brisbane appears to be losing its momentum. While it has enjoyed steady growth in recent years, the signs are now pointing to a slowing pace of growth:
Days on Market (DoM) in Brisbane are starting to lengthen, indicating properties are taking longer to sell. Bad news if you are selling out in Brisbane.
While growth is still positive, it’s not as robust as it once was. Investors can expect moderated growth rates, making Brisbane less attractive for those seeking rapid capital gains.
Brisbane is still a stable market but may not deliver the strong returns investors are accustomed to in the near future.
Melbourne vs Brisbane vs Perth: Which Property Market should investors Be Cautious About?
Perth is raising red flags for cautious investors. Despite its stellar performance in the past five years, historical trends highlight significant risks:
Volatility: The boom-bust nature of the Perth market raises concern. Pre-pandemic, Perth saw an 8% price decline over five years, which left many investors in distress. The decline was about 12%, if we extend the dataset to 15 years worth of data.
Overperformance: Perth has significantly outperformed other markets recently, increasing the likelihood of a reversal or price correction.
Demand vs Sustainability: While demand remains strong, such rapid growth is not sustainable. Investors who cannot weather potential downturns might find themselves exposed. Growth tends to regress towards the mean, which is about 2% annually for Perth. Perth could be in for a prolonged period of stagnation or price fall.
Melbourne vs Brisbane vs Perth: Which Australian Property Market is going to Boom next?
Melbourne on the other hand, has all the indicators that it is about to boom. To understand that, let's look at the median prices over the 10 years:
Row Labels | Median Price Now | Median Price 2020 | Median Price 2015 |
Brisbane | $1,124,261 | $615,287 | $526,383 |
Melbourne | $1,205,394 | $1,026,182 | $769,381 |
Perth | $1,087,656 | $605,617 | $660,515 |
Historically, Melbourne house prices are typically about 46% and 16% higher than Brisbane and Perth respectively. That differential changed at the start of the pandemic, with Melbourne having enjoyed a boom, just before 2020. That boom ended with Melbourne being about 70% more expensive than both Perth and Brisbane. Melbourne boomed while Brisbane remained largely stagnant and Perth crashed.
Melbourne: Rising from the Ashes
With indicators already showing buyer activities in the Melbourne market are picking up, and blue chip suburbs starting to show some price rise, it is only a matter of time before the broader Melbourne market starts to boom. From past experience, it only takes about 3-6 months before investors flock back into the Melbourne enmass, and before FOMO returns. No one has a crystal ball for when or how big this boom will be, unfortunately. But if we use past performance as a guide, we potentially could see prices in Melbourne grow 40% in the next couple of years. That is about 2% growth per month. That was how fast the Melbourne grew in the last boom.
Melbourne appears to be on the verge of a turnaround. Recent data suggests that the city is waking up from its extended pandemic slump. Indicators like reducing stock on market, reducing days on market and buyer activity hint at a market ready to rebound.
Key Points Suggesting a Turnaround:
Median Price Stabilization: Though still underperforming, Melbourne’s price are subtly rising, suggesting a potential bottoming-out phase.
Market Activity: Days on market (DoM) is comparable to Perth and Brisbane, indicating that buyer interest is similar in the 3 markets.
Historical Resilience: Melbourne has a strong track record of bouncing back due to its diverse economy, high population growth, and cultural appeal. Historically, Melbourne house prices are around 75-80% of Sydney's. It is currently about 63% of Sydney's house prices. With Sydney's house prices at around $2.2M, will Melbourne house prices hit $1.7million - $1.8million?, ie, an upside of 40-50%?
Only time will tell.
How can Investors Invest in Melbourne?
So... where are you putting your money? If you are a interstate or overseas investor and are looking at investing in Melbourne, have a chat with us. Our investment advisors have been constantly outperforming the market, helping investor make 50+% more than the average investors. We pick locations before they boom, thus, helping our investors enjoy more of the growth from property investment.
If you want your very own customised consultation and report, get in touch, Get it before others do.
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